Today the global consumption of petroleum is running at approximately 80 million barrels per day (a barrel contains 45 gallons of oil). It has been predicted that in about twenty-five years, this demand will rise to around 120 million barrels per day. Oil analysts are starting to recognize that there is a problem here. The problem now being recognized is that we don't have enough wells and equipment to produce enough oil consistently on a daily basis. It is also becoming clear that drilling wells and shipping oil from the more remote areas of the Earth will push up the cost of oil a great deal. Finally, as we deplete the high-quality oil from the huge fields in Saudi Arabia, North and South America, and other places, oil engineers are finding that the sulphur content and the molecular weight of the oil is increasing.

The benchmark petroleum is known as "West Texas Crude" because it is "light & sweet" oil. This means it has relatively low sulphur levels and consists of shorter, lighter molecules of various hydrocarbons. When oil is refined, the crude is put into a reactor known as a Catalytic Cracker. Within this vessel the crude is heated, and as it reacts with catalysts embedded in the unit, the long chains of hydrocarbons are "cracked" to produce the shorter, lighter molecules needed to produce gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. The heavier the crude, the more processing time is required in the cracking unit. This drives up the final cost of the product.

An example of expensive petroleum can be found in the Alberta oil sands. Did you know that Canada has some of the largest proven oil reserves in the world? Did you know that most of our imported oil comes from Canada?

Canadian officials (Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers) have estimated that the Alberta oil sands contain 175 billion barrels of recoverable oil. The sands encompass a huge area about the size of Florida, centered about 500 miles north of Calgary. The problem with this oil is that it isn't lying under the sand as an easily recoverable liquid; rather it is "wrapped around the sand," as Suncor Energy Inc. CEO Richard George explained. To get the oil away from the sand, it must either be steamed off using huge jets of superheated steam directed into the sands on site or loaded onto huge trucks and taken to crushers that squeeze the oil out of the sand. Both of these processes are energy intensive, especially the steam system, as it requires a huge energy input to produce the steam.

At the present time, Suncor is producing about 260,000 barrels per day. This is accomplished using the steam equipment and 797 transport trucks, which have a hauling capacity of 400 tons of oil sand. Each loaded truck weighs about as much as a Boeing 747. The Caterpillar model 797 truck, the world's largest, is the truck of choice, and orders from the Alberta oil recovery effort are expected to create record sales for Caterpillar. Of course, these billions of dollars of investment must be recovered by sales of the oil, so Alberta crude will not come to us cheaply.

Suncor expects to increase its output to 3 million barrels per day by 2015, and 5 million barrels per day by 2030. The new pipelines needed to distribute that much oil to the Gulf Coast and California refining centers will create tremendous economic activity in the pipeline business.

Another major problem is sulphur. Known sometimes as brimstone, this strange element is so noxious and yet has so many interesting properties occurs naturally in crude oil. New federal clean air regulations have stipulated that it must be removed from transportation fuels, and the process of removal is beginning this year.

Sulphur is removed from the finished petroleum product, such as diesel fuel, by pumping hydrogen through the petroleum. This is done essentially by bubbling the hydrogen gas into the oil. The hydrogen attaches itself to the sulphur as it rises to the top of the liquid and becomes hydrogen sulfide gas. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has required that 80 percent of all diesel fuel used on highways must contain no more than 15 parts/million by November of this year. Currently diesel contains anywhere from 300 to 500 parts/million of sulphur.

Why do we need to get rid of the sulphur?

New EPA regulations require that all vehicles, including highway trucks, made after this year produce essentially no NOx or particulate matter (PM). This cannot be done only by controlling the air-fuel ratio of the engine. The drastic elimination of NOx and PM requires the use of catalytic after-treatment devices placed in the engines exhaust stream. Catalytic devices such as PM traps and NOx catalysts are quickly poisoned by sulphur. Therefore the sulphur must be removed.

Be ready for dosing!

A feature of these new after-treatment technologies will include regenerative cycles, which will clean and recharge the catalytic units. In the case of PM traps on large diesel trucks, it is estimated that a regenerative cycle will be required every twenty minutes to an hour of running. Regeneration works much like a self-cleaning oven. The particulates are trapped in the filter's ceramic matrix. Extremely sophisticated sensors and software estimate when the filter is becoming saturated, and initiate a dosing cycle. Simply put, a doser is a small fuel injector mounted in the exhaust pipe that sprays fuel into the PM unit. The fuel burns in the unit, raising the internal temperature of the PM trap to approximately 550 degrees Celsius. This extreme heat oxidizes the particulates into their base compounds, and they are then swept away by the exhaust flow and exit the tailpipe. This process will not work if any substantial amount of sulphur is in the fuel.

Credit: Bosch

Various types of NOx converters are presently being tested. Most likely to appear will be the unit known as SCR (selective catalyst reduction). This system injects ammonia, derived from an onboard storage medium such as urea, into a temperature-controlled catalyst bed where the ammonia reacts with the NOx to produce nitrogen, air, and water. SCRs will require periodic replacement of the urea storage medium, which can be either a solid tablet or a liquid. These emission devices not only require sulphur-free fuel, they will also consume some fuel in their normal operation. A fuel economy penalty of 2 to 3 percent is expected.

Credit: Bosch

Ultra Low Sulphur Diesel (ULSD) is expected to cost approximately five to seven cents more per gallon than conventional diesel. Because it is a mandated fuel, it is widely believed that the old high-sulphur fuel will become difficult and more expensive to obtain as it will require separate tanks, pumps, and piping. Any vessel or pipeline that carries high sulphur must be thoroughly flushed before ULSD can be introduced, as the ULSD will immediately absorb the ever-present sulphur and exceed its 15 parts/million limit. It is for this reason that the pipeline companies plan to begin pumping ULSD into the nations pipelines in June, as it will take several months to flush the pipelines and storage tanks of the sulphur.

A final note: A recent analysis by Shell Global Solutions found that petroleum will continue to be our primary fuel for many years. At our present level of technology, there is simply no way to produce as much energy as we consume through renewable methods, although renewables will certainly play a part. Unfortunately, solar, wind, biodiesel, and ethanol combined can only replace about one third of our energy demand, and that's after several more years of rapid development of these technologies.

Shell acknowledges that nuclear power could make a dramatic difference in our global energy situation. However, it is believed that global construction of hundreds of new nuclear facilities would not be supported by the public. Of course, if the alternative is $10.00/gallon motor fuel this attitude might change.

What can you do? Remember these simple facts:

• Hybrids are about 25 percent more efficient than non-hybrids.
• Diesel engines are about 25 percent more efficient than gasoline engines.
• Diesel hybrid passenger cars, trucks, and vans should be on the market within two years, thanks to ULSD.
• A diesel/hybrid should be almost 50 percent more efficient than today's vehicles. We're now talking 80 miles per gallon!

When these vehicles enter the market, buy one!